The Biggest Overpays and Best Bargains of NBA Free Agency

NBA free agency kicked off last Friday and was filled with plenty of bold deals. Many fans took to social media to voice their strong opinions regarding who deserved the millions of dollars, and who did not. Below features the biggest overpays and the best bargains in the 2023 Free Agency period thus far.

Top 5 Biggest Overpays

1. Jerami Grant (5 years, $160 million)

The Portland Trail Blazers inked Grant to a massive 5-year deal that pays 32 million per year. Grant is a legitimate offensive player, as over the last three years he’s averaged over 20 points per game on 44% from the field, and 37% from deep, but in my opinion, the Trail Blazers clearly overshot this one. This contract puts Grant, who’s entering his age-30 season, right around young budding talents such as Jayson Tatum, Donavan Mitchell, and De’Aaron Fox in terms of AAV. Additionally, Damian Lillard’s recent trade demand further demonstrates that offering this much money to an older, win-now player was not a good move by Portland.

2. Fred VanVleet (3 years, $128.5 million)

Fred VanVleet got an absolute bag from the Houston Rockets. A former NBA champion and the leader of the Toronto Raptors since Kawhi left in 2019, VanVleet is a solid veteran for such a young Rockets team. However, this 40-plus million-dollar deal felt like a rushed move that doesn’t fit Houston’s timeline. This past season, FVV averaged 19 points, 7 assists, and just over 2 steals while shooting 39% from the field and 34% from three, and per the Bill Simmons podcast, VanVleet had the worst shooting percentage (39%) of all players who took at least 16 shots a game. If we compare him to other players with similar contracts, we would be putting him in conversations with MVP-caliber players such as Anthony Davis, Luka Doncic, and Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Rockets made the postseason every year from 2013 to 2020, and now it’s time for Fred VanVleet to prove why he’s getting superstar money and lead this team back to the playoffs.

3. Dillon Brooks (4 years, $80 million)

Dillion Brooks, one of the most controversial players in the NBA this past season, signed with the Houston Rockets for the next four years. Known as a dirty player throughout the league, Brooks and his questionable defensive plays (e.g., his incident with LeBron in G3 of the first round) have been a popular topic of conversation with the media. Although he averaged 14 pts this past season, he was an incredibly inefficient shooter, going 39% from the field and 33% from 3-point range. Despite my belief that this is an overpay, this move does make the Rockets a better defensive team, as Brooks was a member of the All-NBA Defensive 2nd team last year. All in all, along with VanVleet, Brooks is another veteran overpay by the rebuilding Houston Rockets.

4. Max Strus (4 years, $63 million)

After the Cavs and Heat agreed on a sign and trade, Max Strus is on his way to Cleveland. A former undrafted free agent, Strus bounced around the league with Chicago and Boston before he finally found a home in Miami for the past 3 seasons. Despite being a decent all-around player and an excellent three-point shooter (37% for his career), Strus has not proven that he is worth almost $16 million per year - which puts him in the range of players such as Mitchell Robinson, Kevin Huerter, and Kevin Porter Jr. Personally, I think that the Cavs should have spent that money elsewhere on a more proven player, but they hope that Strus can be a deadly three-point scorer off the bench like he was in this past playoff run for the Miami Heat.

5. Cam Johnson (4 years, $108 million)

The Cam Johnson contract could go either way, but I feel as though it is more of an overpay than a shrewd signing for the Brooklyn Nets. Johnson will receive a base salary of $90 million, and $4.7 million in likely incentives. However there are $13.5 million in unlikely bonuses, that will make this an expected contract of roughly $23.5 million per year. Last year in his age-26 season, Johnson averaged 16 pts, 4 rbpg, and 2 ast. Back in Phoenix - prior to being a major piece in the Kevin Durant trade - he was a solid fourth or fifth man. Now in Brooklyn, he is the clear-cut second option, with Mikal Bridges as the lone star on that team. Johnson is a very solid role player, but 27 million per season is a bit extreme and I feel like the Nets should have spent it elsewhere. Johnson's deal of $27 million puts him at the level of Julius Randle, Tyler Herro, and Defensive Player of the Year Jaren Jackson. This deal could look good if Johnson is able to take a leap in these next few years to become a better scorer and playmaker, but ultimately, this contract doesn’t do enough to move the needle for Brooklyn Nets.

Honorable Mention: Kyrie Irving (3 years, $126 million)

After rumors of potentially joining the Lakers or the Suns, Kyrie Irving - and all his off-the-court troubles - re-signed with the Dallas Mavericks for a whopping 42 million per year. Since his Cleveland days, Kyrie has been a headache and a major distraction in the locker room and with the media. The reason why I have Kyrie as an honorable mention and not in a top 5 spot on this list is due to the fact that he is a clear top 5 point guard in the league when he plays. The Mavericks will be an interesting team to follow this year, as they have immense potential, but need to start seeing results in order to appease Luka Doncic - who has had a few unbelievable individual seasons wasted in Dallas. Will Kyrie and Luka be able to lead this team deep into the playoffs?

Top 5 Best Bargains

1. Austin Reaves (4 years, $56 million)

The Los Angeles Lakers solidified Austin Reaves as a major part of their future by giving him a four-year deal worth roughly 56 million. Reaves broke out this past season, averaging 13/3/3 on incredibly efficient splits (62% eFG, 53% FG, 40% 3FG). Hopefully with this new deal, he can take a step further and help guide another Lebron-led team to an NBA Finals run. This contract looks even better if we compare it to what Dillon Brooks and Max Strus got.

2. Russell Westbrook (2 years, $7.8 million)

This may shock some of you, but I absolutely love the Russell Westbrook deal for the Los Angeles Clippers. Westbrook is a hard-working point guard entering his 17th NBA season, and although he is not the player he once was (a former MVP), he doesn't have to be the best player on his team anymore and instead can focus on how to best fit in with his superstar teammates, Paul George and Kawhi Leonard. Although his three-point shot needs some work at just 35.6%, Russ can still handle the ball and get his teammates involved. He was still very productive last season, as he averaged 16 points, 5 rebounds, and 8 assists. Westbrook signed less than four million dollars per year, which is lower than players on their rookie scale contracts such as Killian Hayes, Aaron Nesmith, and Payton Pritchard. My one concern is that the Clippers could get hit with the injury bug again, or Paul George ends up getting traded. Either of these would deplete the team heavily and force Westbrook to do more than he’s able to at this point in his career. But for that contract, does it really matter?

3. Eric Gordon (2 years, $6.5 million)

Eric Gordon is a very solid role player and will make the Phoenix Suns a deeper team this year. With the new CBA deal, it has been hard for them to add pieces that fill out their bench, but Gordon is a great fit. He shot 46% from the field and 43% from deep, which will add to the high scoring, star-studded Suns, who boast Devin Booker, Kevin Durant, Bradley Beal, and Deandre Ayton. We know how the top four players of this team play and the immense talent they possess, but the rest of the Suns are unproven. The addition of Gordon to the bench will help with this, and for a sum on the lower end of the NBA market, this is a great move by GM James Jones.

4. Kyle Kuzma (4 years, $102 million)

Similar to Cam Johnson’s deal, this contract is a bit tricky to rank. However, after the leap that Kyle Kuzma made this past season, I like this deal for the Wizards. As the number three scorer on the team behind Bradley Beal and Kristaps Porzingis, Kuzma averaged 21 points, 7 rebounds, almost 4 assists while shooting 45% from the field. This upcoming season, he looks to become their first option and could be in line for yet another jump. The one negative with Kuzma is his mediocre three-point percentage, as he shot 33% from deep and needs to be more efficient if he wants to become a star in this league. The Wizards have a foundation of Kuzma and Jordan Poole, but they will likely make zero noise this season until next June in hopes of landing the #1 pick in the 2024 draft.

5. Jaxson Hayes (2 years $4.6 million)

As they continue making new additions to their bench, the Lakers were able to sign Jaxson Hayes away from the New Orleans Pelicans for roughly a third of his contract from last season ($6.8 million). Hayes, a solid role player, provides consistent defense and elite athleticism and always does what he’s asked. For only $2.3 million a year, this is a great deal from the Lakers as Anthony Davis can rest and they have more depth at the position. Adding Hayes to the mix won’t make a massive impact for LA, but he helps out in a lot of ways. However, his time in New Orleans didn’t help his stock, as he was benched for the majority of the season.

Honorable Mention: Gabe Vincent (3 years, $33 million)

It seems like every year the Los Angeles Lakers are able to sign role players to deals that are incredibly team friendly. With a 3 year 33 million dollar deal, Gabe Vincent adds to this list of names. Vincent is coming off an amazing playoff run, where he was a big part in the Miami Heat’s finals run. I like the deal for the Lakers, but the biggest reason that I’m keeping him off of the top 5 is that he has not proven he can consistently play at the level we saw in the 2023 playoffs. Still, it should intrigue fans where Vincent goes from here, as he is likely the backup point guard behind D’Angelo Russell and a great fit alongside LeBron James.